Sunday, May 10, 2026

World

Putin signals Ukraine war nearing its end

Vladimir Putin told reporters he believes the Ukraine war is 'coming to an end' — a notable shift in tone that came hours after he vowed victory at Moscow's most scaled-back Victory Day parade in years. He also broke new ground by saying he would meet Zelensky in a third country, the first time he has offered that concession. Putin separately asked to hold talks with former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder, signaling a search for back-channel diplomacy.

MarketWill Trump and Putin not meet?93%

World

US-Iran ceasefire holds amid fresh regional tensions

A US-Iran ceasefire remains in place while Iran's Revolutionary Guard warns Washington against any attacks on its tankers, and Israel has struck Lebanon killing 24 people. Satellite images have also captured a suspected oil slick spanning dozens of square kilometres near Iran's key oil export hub, Kharg Island, adding an environmental dimension to an already volatile standoff.

MarketUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?46%

Politics

Starmer faces Labour leadership challenge deadline

Labour MP Catherine West has told the BBC that unless a senior cabinet figure launches a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer by Monday, she will attempt to trigger a contest herself. The pressure follows bruising local election results in England, where Reform made historic gains and the Greens stripped Labour control of Lewisham and Lambeth. The first-past-the-post system, long a Labour ally, has now turned sharply against it.

MarketStarmer out by December 31, 2026?61%

Politics

Brazil judge blocks law cutting Bolsonaro sentence

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has suspended a law that could have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence, pending further review by the full court. The ruling keeps Brazil's former president facing the full weight of his conviction and signals the judiciary's determination to resist legislative workarounds. Bolsonaro was convicted on charges related to an attempted coup following his 2022 election loss.

MarketWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?67%

Politics

France moves to mandate backdoors in encrypted messaging

France is advancing legislation that would require encrypted messaging platforms to provide government access to private communications, a move that puts Paris on a collision course with privacy advocates and tech companies worldwide. If passed, the law would effectively mandate backdoors in apps like Signal and WhatsApp, which security experts warn would weaken encryption for all users, not just surveillance targets. The proposal follows similar failed efforts in the UK and EU.