Thursday, May 7, 2026

World

Iran considers US peace proposal as Israel strikes Beirut

Iran is reviewing a US proposal to end the war, with the White House reportedly closing in on a 14-point memorandum of understanding with Tehran. Meanwhile, Israel struck Beirut for the first time since an April 8 ceasefire, and Iran's Foreign Minister is in Beijing seeking Chinese backing for any deal. The conflict's ripple effects are severe: UK fertiliser costs have jumped up to 70%, with global food prices expected to take a "dramatic" hit next year.

MarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?49%

Politics

Trump labels Europe terrorism incubator in new strategy

The Trump administration has released a 16-page counter-terrorism strategy accusing Europe of incubating terrorism through mass migration, while also targeting "violent left-wing extremists" including groups it characterises as "radically pro-transgender." The document, led by Trump ally Sebastian Gorka, recentres US counter-terrorism around drug cartels in the Americas. The strategy marks a sharp rhetorical break from traditional US-European security cooperation.

World

Russia warns diplomats to leave Kyiv ahead of Victory Day

Russia has told foreign diplomats to evacuate Kyiv, threatening mass retaliatory strikes if Ukraine conducts any attacks on Russian soil during Victory Day commemorations. Separately, satellite imagery shows North Korea and Russia's connecting road bridge is nearly complete, the clearest physical symbol yet of the two countries' deepening military partnership. North Korea also formally declared this week that it considers itself not bound by any nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

MarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?26%

Politics

UK local elections pose existential test for Starmer

Millions of voters across England, Scotland, and Wales are heading to the polls Thursday in the biggest electoral test since Labour's 2024 general election win, with the party braced for record-breaking losses to both Reform UK and the Greens. Keir Starmer made a last-minute appeal to wavering voters, arguing that Nigel Farage and the Greens' Zack Polanski are unfit to govern during global instability. The results are widely expected to shape debate over Starmer's future as Labour leader.

MarketStarmer out by June 30, 2026?42%

Economy

Iran crisis sends plastic shock through Asian supply chains

Asia is facing a sharp squeeze on petrochemical inputs used to make plastic packaging, as the Iran war disrupts oil and chemical supplies across the region. Prices for food and medical packaging are rising, hitting manufacturers and hospitals that depend on affordable plastic materials. The disruption adds to a broader commodity crunch already rattling ASEAN leaders meeting in the Philippines, where rising fuel and living costs have overshadowed the summit's formal agenda.

MarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?54%