Sunday, April 12, 2026

World

US and Iran hold direct peace talks in Islamabad

The United States and Iran have begun face-to-face negotiations in Islamabad, the first direct talks since the war began, with Pakistan serving as broker. The Strait of Hormuz remains the central sticking point — Iran has blockaded it, the US claims it has started clearing mines, and Iran's own forces reportedly can't locate what they laid. Vice President Vance confirmed no deal has been reached after the first day, and talks are continuing into a second session.

MarketIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?47%

World

Hungary votes to end Orbán's 16-year rule

Hungarians are heading to the polls Sunday in the most competitive election Viktor Orbán has faced since taking power in 2010, with opposition leader Péter Magyar's grassroots Tisza party leading most polls. Orbán closed his campaign warning of war and lost sovereignty; Magyar promised to dismantle the system entirely. The outcome carries broad European implications — Orbán is one of Putin's closest allies inside the EU.

MarketWill TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?76%

World

Russia violates Easter ceasefire hundreds of times

Hours after the Kremlin declared a 32-hour Easter ceasefire, Russian drones continued striking Ukrainian positions, with Ukrainian forces logging 469 violations of the truce. The attacks followed deadly strikes on Odesa and Kherson that preceded the supposed pause. Ukraine's 148th Separate Artillery Brigade confirmed the ceasefire was not being observed.

MarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?12%

World

Israel approves 34 new West Bank settlements

Israel has approved 34 new settlements in the occupied West Bank, drawing alarm from Palestinians who fear accelerating displacement from their land. The move comes as Israeli strikes have also killed at least 18 people across southern Lebanon, with Lebanon's Health Ministry reporting more than 2,000 deaths since March 2.

MarketWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?29%

Climate

Golden eagles to return to England after 150 years

The UK government has committed £1 million to a golden eagle recovery programme, with reintroduction to England potentially beginning as early as next year. A study identified eight viable areas capable of sustaining a population of the birds, which have been absent from England for over 150 years. It is the first serious government-backed effort to restore the species south of Scotland.