Saturday, April 4, 2026

World

Iran shoots down US warplanes as conflict escalates

Iran's military has downed at least two US warplanes, with celebrations in Tehran and a frantic search underway for pilots. The conflict is rippling far beyond the battlefield — Iranian strikes have knocked Amazon Web Services availability zones offline in Bahrain and Dubai, and India's farmers are facing fertiliser shortages as supply chains through the region fracture. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with multiple countries threatening force to reopen the blocked waterway.

MarketUS forces enter Iran by April 30?84%

World

Russia launches Easter missile barrage, gains stall in Ukraine

Russia fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Ukraine over Easter weekend, killing at least 14 civilians — but its ground campaign has effectively stalled, recording almost no territorial gains in March for the first time in two and a half years. Analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, aggregated by AFP, shows Russian advances slowing since late 2025 due to Ukrainian breakthroughs in the south-east. Zelensky said Russia chose "Easter escalation" over a ceasefire.

MarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?30%

Politics

Democrats sue Trump over mail voting restrictions

More than 20 Democratic attorneys general have filed a lawsuit challenging Trump's executive order directing the US Postal Service to withhold mail-in ballots from anyone not on a pre-approved eligibility list. The suit argues the order is an unconstitutional move to disenfranchise voters ahead of the midterms. The legal challenge lands as the US also enters day 49 of its longest partial government shutdown, with Trump issuing a separate executive order to keep DHS staff paid.

MarketWill the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?40%

Science

Artemis II crew closes in on the Moon

NASA's Artemis II mission is proceeding smoothly, with the four-person crew already 100,000 miles from Earth and transmitting striking photographs as they close in on the Moon. The mission marks the first crewed lunar flyby since Apollo 17 in 1972. The milestone arrives just as Trump's proposed 2027 budget seeks steep cuts to NASA's funding — a move Congress is widely expected to reject.

MarketHuman moon landing in 2026?4%

Tech

Anthropic acquires biotech startup, launches political PAC

Anthropic has acquired stealth biotech AI startup Coefficient Bio for $400 million in stock, its most significant move yet into life sciences. The company has also launched a political action committee ahead of the US midterms, positioning itself to back candidates aligned with its policy agenda. Meanwhile, Anthropic's private-market shares have become the hottest secondary trade on Wall Street, even as OpenAI undergoes a C-suite shake-up with COO Brad Lightcap shifting to "special projects."

MarketWill Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?97%